Polls: Trump Ahead in Arizona and Texas, Deadlocked in Georgia
November 4, 2016
Donald Trump holds the advantage in the reliably Republican states of Arizona and Texas five days until Election Day, but he's running neck and neck with Hillary Clinton in Georgia, according to a trio of new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.
In Arizona, where Clinton campaigned Wednesday night, Trump leads Clinton by five points among likely voters, 45 percent to 40 percent, while Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson is at 9 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein is at 3 percent. Back in September, Trump was ahead by just two points in this four-way race, 40 percent to 38 percent.
In a head-to-head matchup in Arizona, Trump's edge remains five points, 46 percent to 41 percent.
In Georgia, however, Trump is ahead by just one point among likely voters, 45 percent to 44 percent, with Johnson at 8 percent. (Stein isn't on the ballot in the state.) In September, Trump was up two points, 44 percent to 42 percent.
Trump's lead is an identical one point in a race without Johnson - Trump 47 percent, Clinton 46 percent.
And in Texas, Trump's advantage over Clinton is nine points, 49 percent to 40 percent, with Johnson at 6 percent and Stein at 2 percent.
But among the larger universe of registered voters, Trump's lead in the Lone Star State is just four points, 45 percent to 41 percent. (The poll finds a smaller percentage of Latino voters in Texas being likely voters than their makeup of all registered voters in the state.)
Clinton's African-American performance is keeping it close in Georgia
One of the biggest reasons why Georgia is more competitive than Arizona is due to the African-American vote in Georgia being a larger - and more lopsided - force than Latinos in Arizona.
According to the poll, African Americans make up 29 percent of likely voters, and they're breaking for Clinton by a 91 percent to 6 percent margin.
In Arizona, by contrast, Latinos make up 21 percent of likely voters, and they're supporting Clinton by a smaller 66 percent-to-26 percent clip.
Trump leads in the early voting, though barely in Arizona and Georgia
All three states allow early in-person voting, and Trump is ahead here in all three states - although narrowly in Arizona and Georgia.
In Arizona, 58 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and they're breaking for Trump by a narrow 47 percent-to-44 percent margin.
In Georgia, 40 percent of likely voters have already voted, and Trump enjoys a two-point lead, 48 percent to 46 percent.
And in Texas, 54 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and Trump is ahead here by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent.
Looking down the ballot
In Arizona, incumbent Republican Sen. John McCain leads Democratic challenger Ann Kirkpatrick by 16 points among likely voters, 55 percent to 39 percent.
And in Georgia, incumbent Republican Sen. Johnny Isakson is ahead of Democratic challenger Jim Barksdale by 11 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Allen Buckley getting 7 percent.
If the winner doesn't clear 50 percent in that Georgia race, the top-two finishers compete in a Jan. 10 runoff election.
The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 30-Nov. 1. In Arizona, the poll interviewed 948 registered voters (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 719 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
In Georgia, the poll interviewed 937 registered voters (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 707 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).
And in Texas, the poll interviewed 943 registered voters (plus-minus 3.2 percentage points) and 679 likely voters (plus-minus 3.8 percentage points).
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